Growth Projections for 2036
For all Metropolitan Transportation Plans, regional growth projections must be developed and adopted by the SACOG Board of Directors. These projections are based on national and state projections and on current information on the region’s economy and housing. The projections are used to support the investments of future transportation infrastructure.
SACOG worked with the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy and the state departments of Housing and Community Development and Finance to refine these forecasts for use in the Metropolitan Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy.
The full growth projections development process is summarized in the staff report above.
The basic process is as follows:
- The SACOG region job projections were based on projections of U.S. and California job growth and the competitive position of the SACOG region to capture a share of the state and national job growth.
- The SACOG population projections by age, sex, and ethnic group were developed based on the projected job growth starting with the actual regional population in 2008.
- The household projections are based on projecting forward the household formation trends of the current population by age and ethnic group. The preliminary household projections are demographic projections and do not reflect considerations of housing supply, income, and affordability.
- State and national trends account for the major differences between the 2008 Plan and the 2016 Plan. U.S. immigration and total population growth is lower than previously expected. In addition, California is now expected to get a smaller share of U.S. job and population growth than previously projected.
- The SACOG region’s economy is expected to recover slowly with state budget deficits and gridlock restraining job growth in this major sector over the next decade. However, the SACOG region is still expected to outpace the state and nation in job growth to 2020 and 2036.
- These projections depend on the California budget and governance so that the state can make the investments needed to provide a world-class workforce and infrastructure and local communities can develop great places to live and work. The projected growth also depends on the success of local and regional planning efforts in the SACOG region to provide an attractive environment, quality of life, mobility, and transportation mobility.