The six-county Sacramento Region will change drastically over the next half-century. But exactly how that change will occur will largely depend on decisions made today that will affect our children, grandchildren, and thousands of newcomers to the area.

The Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG) is leading an ambitious project to plan the region’s future. Known as the Blueprint Project, its goal is to involve region residents in determining how the area will grow through the middle of the century.

The starting point for the Blueprint Project is the “Base Case Study,” a projection of how the region would look in 2050 if it keeps growing the way it has over the last few years. Land use and demographic projections show that the six-county region that includes Sacramento, Placer, El Dorado, Yuba, Sutter and Yolo counties will remain a relatively attractive place to live and, accordingly, will grow dramatically.

One of the most startling figures to arise from the study is that there will be an estimated 1.7 million more people in the Sacramento Region in 2050 than there were in 2000. As the area grows to over 3.6 million residents, the number of homes will more than double from 713,000 to over 1.5 million.

“The region will continue to grow at a faster pace than national averages because it will remain an attractive place to live. The greatest pressure will be on the housing market, and if demand can’t be met it will negatively affect the economy because people won’t move or stay here if the quality of life isn’t up to the level they desire,” said Stephen Levy, Director of the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy, who led the economic and demographic analysis portion of the study.

“In the late 1990s, our region added only one dwelling unit for every three new jobs,” said Mike McKeever, SACOG’s Blueprint Project manager. “If that trend continued, we would be short over 500,000 dwelling units by 2050. We’ve been matching job growth for the past couple of years, but ensuring that we have the right amount and diversity of housing to meet future employment growth is essential to the region’s future.”

Is there enough land set aside for development under current general plans to support the new homes, jobs and development forecast for 2050? According to the Base Case Study, the answer is no.

“The Base Case shows that it will be very difficult to maintain the quality of life that residents want and the region can offer unless we plan now,” said Martin Tuttle, SACOG Executive Director. “Otherwise, there will be a domino effect that will intensify the negative effects on people’s lives. Traffic congestion created by inadequate road and transit capacity, for example, means longer commutes, less time spent with families, increased air pollution and potentially unaffordable homes closer to urban areas.”

Tuttle said the Blueprint Project will address potential problems, partly by asking area residents to shape plans for the future based on the values they find important today.

“We’re asking people what they like about their neighborhoods and the region, and how we can preserve those values in a future setting that involves nearly twice the population we have now,” Tuttle explained. “We also understand that there is a tremendous diversity of geography, population density and lifestyles just within our region. We want to incorporate input from the local level to maintain the most attractive qualities of the region while helping residents understand that every local decision also has a region-wide impact.”